A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
